Basketball fans never want to see, “Kawhi Leonard – DNP – Load Management, LeBron James – DNP – Load Management, or Stephen Curry – DNP – Broken Hand.” Ticket prices are heavily influenced by whether or not star players are playing during games and the importance of the game. Fans want to see the NBA’s best and brightest stars and are likely to pay higher prices to see these world-class athletes play. When they are injured (or don’t play), the value of the ticket decreases.
The Problem
There are multiple factors that make NBA games a key matchup such as MVPs playing against each other, star players returning back to their old team, and Christmas Day games. The graph above shows five key NBA games that were spoiled due to an injury. It is a financial drain on an organization when an athlete is injured and teams have millions of dollars sitting on the bench. What about the fans that paid money to attend these games? Let’s take an in-depth look at key games to see the before and after effects of star player injuries on ticket prices.
The Game: Giannis vs Kawhi Rematch - Milwaukee Bucks at Los Angeles Clippers
What We Expected: Giannis vs Kawhi. The Greek Freak vs The Board Man. Across all sports, the greatest rivalries need neither introductions nor last names. After their epic series in last season’s Eastern Conference Finals, this game would have featured the 2019 MVP and the 2019 Finals MVP. With the new L.A. Clippers roster having a lot of attention this season, fans were ready to see Kawhi Leonard and Paul George together in action.
What We Got: The start of the season was spoiled with Paul George out indefinitely after his shoulder surgery. As the game day approached, ESPN reported that Kawhi Leonard would miss the game against the Milwaukee Bucks due to a knee injury. This marked the second straight week that his national TV absence fell on the opening game of a Clippers back-to-back. This news had an influence on the ticket price from $19 to $10 on the day of the game, which is a shocking 47% drop. With this news happening three days before the game, this injury might not have affected the ticket price by Leonard not playing at all. According to Fansure’s Scott Kaplan’s paper, The Economic Value of Popularity: Evidence from Superstars in the National Basketball Association, he states, “Many announcements also occur approximately 24 hours prior to a game, which may be the result of a player experiencing an injury during the first game of a back-to-back, or an injury that does not require a 'game-time decision.' There are also noticeable dips in announcement counts 12-20 hours prior to a game because these times often fall during the middle of the night. Rarely do announcements for a player absence for a specific matchup occur more than 36 hours prior to a game.”
The Game: Kyrie Irving Return - Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics
What We Expected: Kyrie Irving played with the Boston Celtics for two seasons before signing a four-year, $136 million free-agent contract this past summer with the Brooklyn Nets. His departure ended unfavorably with many Boston fans. With the Nets playing in Boston twice this season, Irving’s return to Boston was the most highly anticipated matchup for many Celtics fans, who would finally have a chance to let him know how they feel about his departure.
What We Got: With Irving’s first return to Boston on November 27, 2019, he goes down with a shoulder injury just five days before the game. This news had an influence on the ticket price drop of 41.5% ($77 to $45) on the day of the game. Irving’s second chance to play at Boston came on March 3, 2020. As you can see in the graph above, Irving suffered two injuries the last two months before the game. Again, this news negatively influenced the ticket price by dropping 44% ($45 to $25) on the day of the game. Both games showed a trend greater than a 40% drop in ticket prices with Irving not present on the court.
The Game: Christmas Day 2019 - Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors
What We Expected: As with any of the Christmas Day games that the NBA deliberately plans every August, this was a highly anticipated rematch. Two perennial contenders in the West are ready to go head to head again following another grueling western conference finals playoff series the prior year.
What We Got: When Steph Curry broke his hand early in the season, he would go on to miss several months of action. The ticket marketplace clearly reacted to the news of this injury – with the get-in price dropping 43.5% ($177 to $100) in the following days. The final get-in price on Christmas Day plummeted to a staggering $63.
The Game: Anthony Davis Return - Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans Pelicans
What We Expected: In January 2019, Anthony Davis made it clear to the New Orleans Pelicans’ management that he did not want to be a part of the organization going forward. Fast forward to this season, Davis is in a starring role alongside LeBron James, as the Los Angeles Lakers hold the top seed in the Western Conference. During his first game in New Orleans as a Laker, Davis responded to boos by becoming the first player in NBA history to score more than 40 points in his first game against his former team. Pelican fans were ready for the rematch in March.
What We Got: Only 10 days before the Pelicans’ final regular-season home matchup of the season with the Lakers, Davis goes down with a shoulder injury. This effect had a large negative impact on ticket prices by dropping 78.5% ($70 to $15) in just one day. Just two months before the game, ticket prices reached a peak at $91 then slowly dropped to $27 on the day of the game.
The Data
- Tableau interactive visuals for each chart can be found here
- Full post will be published on Fansure's Feed
- Ticket prices are by Vivid Seats*
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